Frédéric Joliot and Otto Hahn

                                                                            Karlsruhe, Germany
                                                                  August 23 – September 1, 2017

                                                      Uncertainties in nuclear reactor systems analysis:

                                                  Improving understanding, confidence and quantification

                                                                             Jointly organized by
                        the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique (CEA/DEN), France,
                                               and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT/INR), Germany

The 23^rd session of the Frédéric Joliot/Otto Hahn (FJOH) Summer School on “Nuclear Reactors Physics, Fuels, and Systems” will be held in Karlsruhe, Germany, from August 23 to September 1, 2017. This session is entitled Uncertainties in nuclear reactor systems analysis: Improving understanding, confidence and quantification. It is an advanced course aimed at junior as well as experienced scientists and engineers engaged in the broad field of nuclear sciences, engineering and technologies.

The FJOH-2017 objective is to help the school participants broaden their knowledge of uncertainty assessment for the design, operation and safety of complex technological systems such as nuclear reactors. The overall course will describe methods for estimating and propagating statistical and systematic errors, VVUQ methodologies and best practices, the main challenges and limitations, expected improvements and current R&D trends.

The FJOH-2017 programme covers the following three topics: (1) Methods of uncertainty assessment and their propagation; (2) Error analysis in reactor core/fuel design and operation; (3) Uncertainty quantification methods in safety analyses. In the 1^st topic, common and advanced concepts of statistical error analysis will be described, as well as the general methodological basis for VVUQ. In the 2^nd topic, these concepts and methods will be specialized to nuclear data, reactor core physics, thermal-hydraulic and fuel modelling as well as plant data analyses. In the 3^rd topic, practical methods of uncertainty and margin estimations will be described in the integrated approach to allow for a plant safety demonstration. Examples will be provided throughout the course to illustrate actual practices.

FJOH-2017 includes plenary lectures, group discussions, seminars, and technical visits. The speakers invited are internationally recognized experts from leading universities, research and development laboratories and industry.

The FJOH-2017 participants will have the opportunity to share their views on specific cross-cutting subjects and open-ended questions, as part of group reflection and critical thinking activities. Time for these group activities is reserved in the School schedule.

This course represents the continuation of the Frédéric Joliot Summer Schools on «Modern Reactor Physics and the Modelling of Complex Systems», which was created by CEA in 1995 to promote knowledge in the field of reactor physics, in a broad sense, and the international exchange of teachers, scientists, engineers and researchers. Beginning in 2004, the scope of the School was extended to include scientific issues related to nuclear fuels. The venues of the FJOH School sessions alternate between Karlsruhe and Aix-en-Provence.

The School’s aim is to address the challenges of reactor design and optimal fuel cycles, and to broaden the understanding of theory and experiments.

The programme of each School session is defined by the International FJOH Scientific Board.

The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the Nuclear Energy Division of CEA jointly organize and sponsor the FJOH Summer School.

1.  Introduction                                                                                                                                                            2 h

1.1.   On the practical importance of uncertainties for nuclear applications

1.2.   Overview of current approaches, practices, and trends in the nuclear industry

                                                                                                        R. Taylor (Manchester Univ. & NNL)

2.  Methods of uncertainty assessment and propagation                                                                                         12 h

2.1.   Statistical uncertainty, error propagation, correlation analysis, statistical

        testing, linear regression, estimation techniques (3 h)                            H. Abdel-Khalik (Purdue Univ.)

2.2     Uncertainty quantification using global sensitivity

            analysis methods (3 h)                                                                       B. Iooss (EdF)

2.3     Epistemic uncertainty propagation in risk/reliability

            analyses (2 h)                                                                                   S. Destercke (Compiègne TU/CNRS)

2.4     VVUQ of modelling & simulation tools: Basic principles and

2.5     Planning and designing representative and optimized (envelope)                                                                                    validation experiments (2 h)                                                               W. Oberkampf (Consulting Engineer)

3.  Error analysis in reactor core and fuel design and operation                                                                             10 h

3.1     Nuclear data covariance assessment and data assimilation (2h)                 H. Leeb (TU Wien)

3.2     Uncertainty evaluation, sensitivity analysis, error propagation
and V&V experiments for core physics (2h)                                          T. Kozlowski (Univ. Illinois)

3.3     New methods for assessing uncertainties in CFD simulations,
inferring limitations (2h)                                                                      R. Macian-Juan (TU Munich)

3.4     Uncertainties in fuel modelling (2h)                                                          A. Bouloré (CEA)

3.5     Deriving information from large sets of measurements (2h)                       R. van Geemert (AREVA)

4.  Uncertainty quantification methods in safety analyses                                                                                      10 h

4.1     Deterministic and statistical methods of uncertainty and
  sensitivity evaluation (2h)                                                                   H. Gläser (GRS)

4.2     Safety margin assessment and decision process (2h)                                 E. Ivanov (IRSN)

4.3     Evaluating uncertainties and correlations in fuel thermo-mechanics

 and system thermo-hydraulics calculations (2h)                                    F. Gaudier (CEA)

4.4   CIAU methodology for uncertainty evaluation in

             thermal-hydraulics (2h)                                                                      A. Petruzzi (NINE Consulting)

4.5   Uncertainty quantification for severe accident scenarios (2h)                      X. Zheng (JAEA)

Group Reflection on Selected Scientific Topics                                                                                                    6 h

     Seminar                                                                                                                                                                  2 h

                 Real-time On-line Decision Support Systems for Off-site

                 Emergency Management                                                                       W. Raskob (KIT)

     Technical visits of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology R&D facilities